Carabao Cup winners Liverpool have a chance of winning a historic quadruple this season, but can they actually do it? Jake Osgathorpe runs the numbers.
Liverpool are an exceptionally good football team. We all know that already.
But talk of a quadruple is simply mind-boggling.
One team winning a domestic treble and the Champions League; it would surely be the most incredible feat ever seen in team sports.
It is possible. There is a chance of the Reds doing something stunning, and the fact we are still talking about it as a possibility in mid-April is impressive in itself.
Having already bagged the Carabao Cup by beating Chelsea on penalties, Liverpool have since progressed to the Champions League semi-final and the FA Cup final, while also closing the gap on Premier League leaders Manchester City to just a point.
Let’s assess the chances Jurgen Klopp’s side have in each competition.
Can Liverpool win the Premier League?
Winning any of the remaining three competitions will be tough, but the league title may be the toughest, as their destiny is out of their hands.
A 2-2 draw at the Etihad last weekend meant Manchester City retained their one-point advantage at the summit of the league, but Liverpool’s 4-0 demolistion of Manchester United at Anfield on Tuesday evening sent the Reds two points clear at the head of proceedings – though they have now played a game more than Pep Guardiola’s men.
Given the levels of both Liverpool and City, it wouldn’t surprise at all if both were to win all of their remaining league games.
City have arguably the easier run-in, but with 10 wins in their last 12 Premier League matches it would be folly to rule out Liverpool’s chances.
Can Liverpool win the Champions League?
Liverpool progressed past Benfica, as expected, with a 6-4 aggregate win, but what happened on their side of the draw was extremely unexpected.
After getting arguably the easiest of possible draws in the quarter-finals, Villarreal’s conquering of Bayern Munich will have been a welcome surprise for Jurgen Klopp’s side.
Instead of facing the Bundesliga champions-elect, they take on Unai Emery’s Villarreal.
Now, the Spanish side deserve respect, but they are nowhere near the level of Liverpool, and even if Bayern had progressed, they hadn’t shown enough to suggest they could knock the Reds out.
Nonetheless, Infogol’s model gives Liverpool a 76.1% chance of getting to the Champions League final, and the draw coupled with their excellence makes them the 40.5% favourites to lift the big-eared trophy.
Their now-arch-rivals Manchester City are likely to stand in their way of glory yet again, meaning three of the four major competitions involving English teams will be defined by the two sides.
Pep Guardiola’s side face a tougher semi-final than Liverpool, taking on 13-time winners Real Madrid, but are expected to progress, with a City-Liverpool final the most likely match-up.
Boy that would be exciting, and it would be a game for revenge for whoever missed out on the Premier League title.
Can Liverpool win the FA Cup?
Liverpool beat Manchester City at Wembley in the semi-final this past weekend, setting up a final date with Chelsea, the team they beat in the Carabao Cup final a few months ago.
It was another titanic tussle between the two best teams in Europe, with the Reds prevailing 3-2 after a scintillating first half.
The Infogol model now gives Liverpool a 65.1% chance of lifting the FA Cup, being strong favourites to beat Chelsea at Wembley for the second time this season.
How likely is it Liverpool do the quadruple?
Fighting on all fronts is a difficult task for any team, but Liverpool have shown that they are more than capable of doing so.
Klopp has built a deep squad full of quality, allowing for rotation without losing any oomph.
Source: Jake Osgathorpe
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